Conventional innovation starts with a well-defined problem. Afeyan argues this is limiting. A more powerful approach is to search for new value pools by exploring problems and potential solutions in parallel, allowing for unexpected discoveries that problem-first thinking would miss.
Afeyan advises against making breakthrough innovation everyone's responsibility, as it's unsustainable and disruptive to daily jobs. Instead, companies should create a separate group with different motivations, composition, and rewards, focused solely on discontinuous leaps.
Afeyan distinguishes risk (known probabilities) from uncertainty (unknown probabilities). Since breakthrough innovation deals with the unknown, traditional risk/reward models fail. The correct strategy is not to mitigate risk but to pursue multiple, diverse options to navigate uncertainty.
Nubar Afeyan argues that companies should pursue two innovation tracks. Continuous innovation should build from the present forward. Breakthroughs, however, require envisioning a future state without a clear path and working backward to identify the necessary enabling steps.
While adjacent, incremental innovation feels safer and is easier to get approved, Nubar Afeyan warns that everyone else is doing the same thing. This approach inevitably leads to commoditization and erodes sustainable advantage. Leaping to new possibilities is the only way to truly own a new space.
Afeyan proposes that AI's emergence forces us to broaden our definition of intelligence beyond humans. By viewing nature—from cells to ecosystems—as intelligent systems capable of adaptation and anticipation, we can move beyond reductionist biology to unlock profound new understandings of disease.