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The U.S. is currently 'overshooting'—committing more resources than it has available—in multiple limited wars. This approach violates its own military doctrine, proven ineffective in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and erodes trust with allies who see the U.S. as overextended and unreliable.
The administration's military objectives are in constant flux, moving from grand goals like regime change and 'obliterating' the enemy to vaguely 'diminishing' them. This signals a lack of a coherent long-term strategy, undermining the mission's credibility and making it impossible to define or achieve victory.
The US military action against Iran lacks a clear off-ramp or stated goal, violating the Powell Doctrine. This ambiguity between objectives like "regime change" and other aims creates strategic confusion and risks prolonged engagement without a defined victory condition.
Under Secretary of War Emil Michael reveals a strategic pivot away from restrictive, "fair fight" rules of engagement. The new approach, reminiscent of the Powell Doctrine, emphasizes using overwhelming force to achieve clear objectives quickly and minimize US casualties.
Recent, pointless-seeming wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have created a new version of "Vietnam Syndrome." This public and political aversion to foreign intervention makes it nearly impossible for the US to commit to providing crucial, early support in conflicts where it may be necessary, such as in Ukraine.
A current US military doctrine involves intentionally starting conflicts with limited force, knowing the resulting instability will spread to allies. This compels them to "share the burden" of US national security interests, effectively forcing their involvement in conflicts they might otherwise avoid.
The political precedent set by the Bush administration—convincing Americans they can have both major wars and tax cuts—has disconnected the public from the true costs of conflict. This mindset makes it easier for governments to enter into tremendously expensive, multi-trillion-dollar quagmires without clear objectives or public accountability for the fiscal trade-offs.
The US is moving from a global deterrence posture to concentrating massive force for specific operations, as seen with Iran. This strategy denudes other theaters of critical assets, creating windows of opportunity for adversaries like China while allies are left exposed.
Initial military actions, like successful bombings, can feel like victories. However, they often fail to solve the core political issue, trapping leaders into escalating the conflict further to achieve the original strategic goal, as they don't want to accept failure.
Nations like the US and USSR prolong involvement in failed conflicts like Afghanistan primarily due to "reputational risk." The goal shifts from achieving the original mission to avoiding the perception of failure, creating an endless commitment where objectives continually morph.
"Strength" is a limited capability (e.g., rockets), while "power" is the sum of all capabilities (diplomatic, economic, etc.). By focusing on demonstrating "strength," the U.S. depletes its finite military resources and erodes its diplomatic "power" and influence, ultimately making the nation weaker.