The US is moving from a global deterrence posture to concentrating massive force for specific operations, as seen with Iran. This strategy denudes other theaters of critical assets, creating windows of opportunity for adversaries like China while allies are left exposed.
Related Insights
Under Trump, the primary tool for projecting U.S. power is shifting from economic instruments like tariffs to direct military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities. This "Donroe Doctrine" leverages America's asymmetrical advantages in these areas, especially in its hemisphere, to achieve foreign policy wins without relying on economic coercion.
The United States' greatest strategic advantage over competitors like China is its vast ecosystem of over 50 wealthy, advanced, allied nations. China has only one treaty ally: North Korea. Weakening these alliances through punitive actions is a critical foreign policy error that erodes America's primary source of global strength.
While the U.S. talks about pushing back against China, its military position in East Asia has declined relative to China's rapid buildup. Unlike during the Cold War, U.S. leaders haven't committed the necessary resources or explained the stakes to the American public.
Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.
Executing complex military operations publicly reveals sensitive tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Adversaries like Russia and China study these events to deconstruct US capabilities, from mission sequencing to electronic warfare. This exposure of the 'revolver's shots' depletes the element of surprise for future, more critical conflicts.
The "military backs the dollar" thesis is being challenged by Russia's performance against NATO, the disruption of naval power by cheap Houthi drones, and China's chokehold on rare earths. This erosion of credible power projection directly weakens the dollar's foundation of global dominance.
U.S. foreign policy actions against Venezuela and Iran are not primarily about democracy but are strategic moves to disrupt the flow of cheap, sanctioned oil to China. By controlling these sources, the U.S. can directly attack a key adversary's economic and military engine.
Simulations of a conflict with China consistently show the US depleting its high-end munitions in about seven days. The industrial base then requires two to three years to replenish these stockpiles, revealing a massive gap between military strategy and production capacity that undermines deterrence.
The West's decline in military resolve, moral authority (e.g., the Iraq War), and overall focus created a power vacuum. Adversaries perceived this weakness as an opportunity to act on long-held ambitions, viewing it as a moment to "test the waters" with minimal consequences from a weakened West.
The recent uptick in global conflicts, from Ukraine to the Caribbean, is not a series of isolated events. It's a direct result of adversaries perceiving American weakness and acting on the historical principle that nations expand their influence until they are met with sufficient counter-force.
