Russia perceives itself as having momentum and believes its military position will strengthen in the coming months. This confidence removes any urgency to negotiate or make significant concessions, making it the most significant impediment to ending the conflict.

Wars are often prolonged not due to military inability, but because a drawn-out conflict is immensely profitable for the military-industrial complex. A swift victory would end the revenue stream, creating a perverse incentive to maintain a state of war.

Alexander Stubb outlines a threefold failure for Putin: strategically, he pushed Finland into NATO; militarily, he’s achieved minimal gains at catastrophic cost (e.g., 34,000 Russian soldiers killed in Dec.); and economically, Russia is crippled. Putin continues the war not to win, but to avoid the domestic fallout of admitting defeat.

Modern conflicts are not fought for clear victories but as a mechanism to funnel wealth from the public to military, financial, and technical industrial complexes. This framework makes seemingly illogical, perpetual wars make financial sense for a select few.

Ukraine's most realistic theory of success is not reclaiming all territory militarily, but leveraging its advantages to stabilize the front and inflict unsustainable casualties and economic costs on Russia. This strategy aims to make the war so futile for Moscow that it forces a favorable negotiated settlement.

The invasion has crippled Russia's long-term prospects. It has suffered generational setbacks in economic and demographic development, diminished its global reputation, and triggered a massive military buildup in Europe, worsening its security position.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

Putin's desire to continue the war outweighs any potential benefits offered in negotiations. This persistence is not based on a reasonable assessment of the situation but on sunk costs, personal legacy, and a belief that Russia's sheer will can outlast Western support.

Russia's reported economic growth is a mirage fueled by massive spending on a military-industrial complex that produces goods "designed to be destroyed." This war-focused sector is sucking resources, capital, and labor away from the productive civilian economy, creating a fragile system that undermines long-term prosperity.