To predict outcomes and achieve goals, develop an accurate model of reality. This is best done by removing subjective emotions and sentiment, and only analyzing what can be tangibly observed.
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People fail to get what they want because they haven't defined "winning" in observable terms. By stripping away emotional language ("feel great") and defining goals behaviorally ("get a hug at the door"), you create a clear path to success.
The math used for training AI—minimizing the gap between an internal model and external reality—also governs economics. Successful economic agents (individuals, companies, societies) are those with the most accurate internal maps of reality, allowing them to better predict outcomes and persist over time.
Instead of waiting for obvious failure, "anomalizing" involves proactively looking for small, early signs that reality is departing from your expectations. This mental habit allows for early course correction before a mistake becomes costly.
To understand your deepest, subconscious beliefs, ignore your conscious thoughts and simply observe the tangible results in your life. Your health, wealth, and relationships are the physical manifestation of your true programming. The results don't lie.
Most people make poor decisions because they are trapped by emotions and view the world in simple binaries. A better approach is to map a situation's full complexity, understand its trade-offs, and recognize where others are getting stuck in their feelings, thus avoiding those same traps.
To combat self-deception, write down specific predictions about politics, the economy, or your life and review them 6-12 months later. This provides an objective measure of your judgment, forcing you to analyze where you were wrong and adjust the thought patterns that led to the incorrect forecast.
Treat your goal as a hypothesis and your actions as inputs. If you don't get the desired outcome, you haven't failed; you've just gathered data showing those inputs were wrong. This shifts the focus from emotional failure to analytical problem-solving about what to change next.
When learning, focus exclusively on observable inputs that produce desired outputs. Avoid getting lost in psychological or emotional explanations for why something works. A tennis coach physically corrects your grip; they don't analyze your childhood to understand why you hold the racket wrong. Focus on what people do.
If a highly successful person repeatedly makes decisions that seem crazy but consistently work, don't dismiss them. Instead, assume their model of reality is superior to yours in a key way. Your goal should be to infer what knowledge they possess that you don't.
To prevent reactive emotions and confirmation bias, adopt a strict personal rule: it is "illegal" to form an interpretation or an emotional response until you have gathered all available information. This forces a pause for critical thinking and objectivity before solidifying a perspective.
