Genius, whether in comedy, investing, or leadership, is the art of noticing. It's about being more sensitive to details, questioning foundational assumptions (like why slavery ended), and seeing the opportunity in things others accept at face value. This is a trainable skill of curiosity.

True entrepreneurial success stems from a deep-seated, almost irrational belief that exists before the skills or evidence to support it. Daniel Ek and the founder of Sony both exemplify this, possessing a powerful conviction in their potential long before they achieved massive success.

Waiting for perfect data leads to paralysis. A core founder skill is making hard decisions with incomplete information. This 'founder gut' isn't innate; it's developed by studying the thought processes—not just the outcomes—of experienced entrepreneurs through masterminds, advisors, or podcasts.

A good outcome does not automatically validate the decision-making process, as luck plays a significant role. Howard Marks stresses the importance of intellectual humility in recognizing that a successful result could have stemmed from wrong reasons or randomness, a crucial distinction for repeatable success.

To accurately assess a leader's actions, especially an unconventional one, avoid asking 'What would it mean if I did that?' Instead, ask 'What does it mean that *they* are doing that?' This helps separate your personal behavioral standards from their actual intent and worldview.

When evaluating others' success, ask if their strategy would work for most people who adopt it, or if it relied heavily on luck. If a strategy isn't reproducible and leaves many casualties behind, it's not a model to be learned from, regardless of the impressive outlier outcome.

Successful individuals earn 'idiosyncrasy credit,' allowing them to deviate from social norms. However, observers often make the mistake of assuming these eccentricities were necessary for success. In reality, these behaviors are often tolerated or hidden until success provides the freedom to express them.

Negative feedback that dismisses your idea as 'nuts' is incredibly valuable. This extreme reaction forces you to rigorously test your core assumptions, revealing whether you are fundamentally wrong and saving time, or 'deadly right' about a non-obvious market shift.

Experienced VCs may transition from rigid analytical frameworks to an intuitive search for outliers. Instead of asking if a business plan 'makes sense,' they look for unusual qualities that challenge their worldview and hint at massive potential.