Typically, global investors lead rallies in the Japanese equity market. However, the surge following Sanai Takaichi's election saw unusually strong momentum from domestic investors and high public expectation (68% according to one poll). This reversal of the usual pattern suggests a revival of "Abenomics" optimism locally.
The recent flattening of Japan's yield curve masks underlying structural weakness in the superlong-end bond market. Reduced purchases by the Bank of Japan will keep net supply high, creating a challenging supply-demand dynamic that domestic investors alone may struggle to absorb, even if the Ministry of Finance cuts issuance.
Despite market fears of aggressive "Abenomics 2.0," economist Ayako Fujita argues that Sanai Takaichi's fiscal plans are limited by high inflation. Her proposed policies focus on income redistribution, like tax credits for low-income households, and will take 1-2 years to implement, suggesting a more moderate approach than expected.
While Sanai Takaichi's past comments raised alarms, her statement that government should be "responsible for both fiscal and monetary policy" is consistent with the BOJ Act's coordination requirement. She has since moderated her tone, suggesting the Bank of Japan's path towards rate hikes will likely continue, driven by inflation data rather than political pressure.