Severe winter weather in the United States has a direct and significant impact on European energy markets. The cold snap forced a 50% reduction in US LNG feed gas flows, constricting supply to Europe and helping keep prices elevated near €40 amid its own high demand.
Despite a massive single-day drop, the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact. The pullback is viewed as a normal de-risking event within a larger structural trend of diversification by central banks, leading to a "ratchet-like" price formation over time.
Copper's surge to record levels occurred despite weak physical demand from Chinese industrial consumers. The rally was primarily fueled by speculative "quasi-demand" from Chinese investors, suggesting the price move is not fundamentally supported and is considered "easy come and easy go."
Current oil prices are trading significantly above their fundamental fair value of $61/barrel. The analyst estimates that $8 of the price strength is a temporary premium due to geopolitical tensions with Iran, while only $2 is attributable to actual supply disruptions and cold weather.
The European Union's phase-out of Russian gas is not absolute. Legacy pipeline contracts to Hungary and Slovakia are expected to be exempt. Furthermore, the anticipated loss of Russian LNG supply is projected to be fully absorbed by new global LNG capacity, resulting in a muted impact on prices.