J.P. Morgan's research projects Venezuela could reach 1.4 million barrels per day in two years, but feedback from industry players suggests these numbers are "too low." This indicates that the U.S. administration and energy executives anticipate a much faster and larger production ramp-up than currently modeled.
By consolidating influence over Venezuelan and Guyanese reserves alongside its own, the U.S. could control nearly a third of global oil reserves. This would fundamentally reshape energy geopolitics, diminishing the influence of powers like Saudi Arabia and potentially keeping oil prices in a lower range.
Venezuela's near-term gas impact will be indirect. Piped gas can backfill underutilized LNG facilities in neighboring Trinidad and Tobago and eliminate Colombia's need for LNG imports. This creates a bearish effect on the global LNG market without Venezuela building a single new LNG plant.
Unlike its energy sector, Venezuela's vast mineral wealth is poorly understood due to a lack of verifiable reserve data. Widespread illicit mining, poor governance, and human rights abuses mean a much longer and more complex road to legitimate production, delaying any significant market impact.