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The debate over the morality of aggressive foreign policy is often moot. The ultimate judgment, by both historians and the public, hinges entirely on the outcome. A successful result that brings stability and economic benefit will likely lead to justification of the means, while failure ensures condemnation.
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An act of aggression can become so popular domestically that leaders feel compelled to see it through, even if initially intended as a negotiating tactic. The Argentine junta found the Falklands invasion was "the most popular thing they'd ever done," trapping them in a conflict they couldn't easily abandon.
The reality of power is morally ugly, necessitating strategic alliances with monstrous figures, like the US partnering with Stalin to defeat Hitler. This isn't an aberration but a core function of geopolitics: using a lesser evil to combat a greater, more immediate threat.
A leader's controversial actions are judged solely on their final outcomes. If risky geopolitical or economic moves ultimately succeed, history will reframe the contemporary uncertainty and chaos as brilliant strategy, rendering moral objections moot over time.
Administrations that experience initial success with military force, like the Soleimani strike, may start believing they have a 'hot hand.' This leads them to ignore predictable downside scenarios and double down on risky strategies, assuming past luck will continue.
In global conflicts, a nation's power dictates its actions and outcomes, not moral righteousness. History shows powerful nations, like the U.S. using nuclear weapons, operate beyond conventional moral constraints, making an understanding of power dynamics more critical than moralizing.
A political leader can survive immense public backlash for chaotic or morally questionable actions if the ultimate outcome benefits the populace, such as a stronger economy. The positive ends can effectively 'paint over' the horrific means used to achieve them.
Leaders create simplified, emotionally resonant narratives for public consumption that mask the messy, complex, and often ugly truths behind their actions. The real "why" is rarely present in the official story.
Initial military actions, like successful bombings, can feel like victories. However, they often fail to solve the core political issue, trapping leaders into escalating the conflict further to achieve the original strategic goal, as they don't want to accept failure.
Holding out for morally perfect leaders is naive and paralyzing. The reality of geopolitics is a "knife fight" where leaders inevitably make decisions that result in death. Progress requires working with these flawed individuals rather than disengaging over past actions.
Proponents of engaging with regimes like Saudi Arabia often pivot from specific moral criticisms (e.g., murdering journalists) to comparative flaws in Western democracies (e.g., gun violence). This "whataboutism" is a rhetorical strategy to reframe the debate and justify actions by implying moral equivalence.
