Meaningful reform in Iran is unlikely until the succession of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is resolved. Deep uncertainty over who will hold power paralyzes the political system, preventing any faction from making significant changes and forcing the country into a holding pattern until the leadership transition occurs.

Much of the public conflict between powerful leaders isn't about substantive policy differences but about ego. The desire to avoid looking weak or like they are capitulating leads to political theater that prevents rational cooperation, even when both sides know the eventual outcome is inevitable.

The U.S. ambassador in 1977 was shocked that few staff spoke Farsi or had ever left Tehran. This linguistic and cultural isolation meant they lacked links to opposition groups, and their intelligence was based almost solely on the Shah's insulated royal court.

Days before Iran's 1978 revolution, President Jimmy Carter lauded the Shah's leadership and Iran's "stability." This highlights a catastrophic failure of intelligence and a reliance on superficial state-level relationships over understanding ground-level dissent.

Even when facing severe international backlash, a US president's most controversial foreign policy actions are ultimately limited by unpopularity within their own country and party, which creates significant political and practical consequences that outweigh pressure from allies.

The Iranian Revolution was fueled by a Shia worldview centered on martyrdom, cosmic struggle between good and evil, and an apocalyptic final battle. U.S. policymakers, lacking any understanding of this religious framework, were completely unprepared for its political power.

The U.S. Embassy and CIA were unaware that the Shah was dying of leukemia, dismissing rumors as Russian propaganda. This critical intelligence gap meant they couldn't understand his indecisiveness and erratic behavior as the crisis escalated, misreading the entire situation.

The Shah was seen as a repressive autocrat, yet he was indecisive when confronted with mass protests, partly due to his illness. This politically toxic combination alienated the people through repression while emboldening them through weakness, creating the perfect conditions for his downfall.

The shutdown of Iranian oil fields caused global prices to surge, leading to gas lines and high inflation in the US. This economic pain, more than the foreign policy failure itself, crippled Jimmy Carter's presidency by translating a distant revolution into a tangible, politically toxic domestic issue.