The fundamental shift from AI isn't about replacing foundational model companies like OpenAI. Instead, AI creates a new technological substrate—productized intelligence—that will engender an entirely new breed of software companies, marking the end of the traditional SaaS playbook.
Related Insights
A market bifurcation is underway where investors prioritize AI startups with extreme growth rates over traditional SaaS companies. This creates a "changing of the guard," forcing established SaaS players to adopt AI aggressively or risk being devalued as legacy assets, while AI-native firms command premium valuations.
In the previous SaaS era, emulating giants like Salesforce was a common but flawed strategy for startups. In the new AI era, there is no playbook at all, forcing founders to rethink go-to-market strategies from first principles rather than copying incumbents.
Most successful SaaS companies weren't built on new core tech, but by packaging existing tech (like databases or CRMs) into solutions for specific industries. AI is no different. The opportunity lies in unbundling a general tool like ChatGPT and rebundling its capabilities into vertical-specific products.
The true economic revolution from AI won't come from legacy companies using it as an "add-on." Instead, it will emerge over the next 20 years from new startups whose entire organizational structure and business model are built from the ground up around AI.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
The ease of building applications on top of powerful LLMs will lead companies to create their own custom software instead of buying third-party SaaS products. This shift, combined with the risk of foundation models moving up the stack, signals the end of the traditional SaaS era.
The current moment is ripe for building new horizontal software giants due to three converging paradigm shifts: a move to outcome-based pricing, AI completing end-to-end tasks as the new unit of value, and a shift from structured schemas to dynamic, unstructured data models.
Unlike prior tech cycles with a clear direction, the AI wave has a deep divide. SaaS vendors see AI enhancing existing applications, while venture capitalists bet that AI models will subsume and replace the entire SaaS application layer, creating massive disruption.
In the age of AI, 10-15 year old SaaS companies face an existential crisis. To stay relevant, they must be willing to make radical changes to culture and product, even if it threatens existing revenue. The alternative is becoming a legacy player as nimbler startups capture the market.
Most current AI tools are skeuomorphic—they just perform old tasks more efficiently. The real transformation will come from "AI-native" applications that create entirely new business models, just as Uber was an "iPhone-native" concept unimaginable before its time. The biggest winners will use AI to become the industry, not just sell to it.
