AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
A market bifurcation is underway where investors prioritize AI startups with extreme growth rates over traditional SaaS companies. This creates a "changing of the guard," forcing established SaaS players to adopt AI aggressively or risk being devalued as legacy assets, while AI-native firms command premium valuations.
Established SaaS firms avoid AI-native products because they operate at lower gross margins (e.g., 40%) compared to traditional software (80%+). This parallels brick-and-mortar retail's fatal hesitation with e-commerce, creating an opportunity for AI-native startups to capture the market by embracing different unit economics.
For established software companies with sluggish growth, the path forward is clear: find a way to become relevant in the age of AI. While they may not become the next Harvey, attaching to AI spend can boost growth from 15% to 25%, the difference between a viable public company and a sale to a private equity firm.
Standard SaaS pricing fails for agentic products because high usage becomes a cost center. Avoid the trap of profiting from non-use. Instead, implement a hybrid model with a fixed base and usage-based overages, or, ideally, tie pricing directly to measurable outcomes generated by the AI.
The ease of building applications on top of powerful LLMs will lead companies to create their own custom software instead of buying third-party SaaS products. This shift, combined with the risk of foundation models moving up the stack, signals the end of the traditional SaaS era.
AI companies operate under the assumption that LLM prices will trend towards zero. This strategic bet means they intentionally de-prioritize heavy investment in cost optimization today, focusing instead on capturing the market and building features, confident that future, cheaper models will solve their margin problems for them.
Unlike SaaS, where high gross margins are key, an AI company with very high margins likely isn't seeing significant use of its core AI features. Low margins signal that customers are actively using compute-intensive products, a positive early indicator.
Traditional SaaS metrics like 80%+ gross margins are misleading for AI companies. High inference costs lower margins, but if the absolute gross profit per customer is multiples higher than a SaaS equivalent, it's a superior business. The focus should shift from margin percentages to absolute gross profit dollars and multiples.
In a world where AI makes software cheap or free, the primary value shifts to specialized human expertise. Companies can monetize by using their software as a low-cost distribution channel to sell high-margin, high-ticket services that customers cannot easily replicate, like specialized security analysis.
The push for AI-driven efficiency means many companies are past 'peak employee.' This creates a scenario analogous to a country with a declining population, where the total number of available seats is in permanent decline, making per-seat pricing a fundamentally flawed long-term business model.