The ease of building applications on top of powerful LLMs will lead companies to create their own custom software instead of buying third-party SaaS products. This shift, combined with the risk of foundation models moving up the stack, signals the end of the traditional SaaS era.
Established SaaS firms avoid AI-native products because they operate at lower gross margins (e.g., 40%) compared to traditional software (80%+). This parallels brick-and-mortar retail's fatal hesitation with e-commerce, creating an opportunity for AI-native startups to capture the market by embracing different unit economics.
The notion of building a business as a 'thin wrapper' around a foundational model like GPT is flawed. Truly defensible AI products, like Cursor, build numerous specific, fine-tuned models to deeply understand a user's domain. This creates a data and performance moat that a generic model cannot easily replicate, much like Salesforce was more than just a 'thin wrapper' on a database.
The long-held belief that a complex codebase provides a durable competitive advantage is becoming obsolete due to AI. As software becomes easier to replicate, defensibility shifts away from the technology itself and back toward classic business moats like network effects, brand reputation, and deep industry integration.
By publicizing its internal AI-powered tools for sales, finance, and support, OpenAI signaled its ambition to enter the enterprise application market, directly challenging SaaS incumbents and causing HubSpot's stock to fall.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
The enduring moat in the AI stack lies in what is hardest to replicate. Since building foundation models is significantly more difficult than building applications on top of them, the model layer is inherently more defensible and will naturally capture more value over time.
The value in AI services has shifted from labeling simple data to generating complex, workflow-specific data for agentic AI. This requires research DNA and real-world enterprise deployment—a model Turing calls a "research accelerator," not a data labeling company.
Dylan Field is skeptical that disposable, AI-generated apps will replace complex SaaS products. Real business software must handle countless edge cases, scale with teams, and support shared workflows—a level of complexity and institutional knowledge that today's agents are far from mastering.
In the future, it will be easier for businesses to build their own custom software (e.g., Salesforce) through prompting than to buy and configure an off-the-shelf solution. This shift towards "liquid software" will fundamentally challenge the one-size-fits-all SaaS model, especially for companies that currently rely on implementation partners.
The push for AI-driven efficiency means many companies are past 'peak employee.' This creates a scenario analogous to a country with a declining population, where the total number of available seats is in permanent decline, making per-seat pricing a fundamentally flawed long-term business model.