Despite high packer profitability, new processing plants struggle to enter the market. The four largest packers control 80% of the market and have long-term contracts for shelf space with major retailers, effectively locking out smaller, independent competitors from accessing consumers.

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The US has lost over half its cattle operations in a generation, and the average rancher is now over 58. A long-term "cost-price squeeze" has made the profession financially unattractive, leading families to encourage their children to pursue other careers and threatening the industry's future labor supply.

Meatpackers use cheaper foreign beef to drive down prices paid to domestic ranchers. Because this beef lacks country-of-origin labeling, retailers sell it at the same high price as domestic beef, capturing the entire margin instead of passing savings to consumers.

Normally, high prices signal producers to increase supply. However, cattle ranchers, having experienced a sudden price collapse in 2015 after a period of record highs, no longer trust that current high prices will be sustained. This boom-bust memory breaks the typical economic supply-response cycle.

The housing industry is resistant to startup disruption due to immense "activation energy." This includes hyper-local regulations, fragmented distribution, cyclical capital needs, and a complex web of legacy players. Overcoming this barrier requires decades of effort, creating a powerful moat for incumbents.

Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers like Old Dominion build moats through extensive physical networks of service centers. A key barrier to entry for competitors is real estate; ODFL's legacy locations are in dense population centers, while new entrants face "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) opposition, forcing them to build further out.

The allure of massive distribution at a mass-market retailer like Walmart is a trap. It establishes the lowest possible price point for your product, which every subsequent retail partner will use as a benchmark, limiting your brand's long-term profitability and pricing power.

In 1980, cattle producers received over 60 cents of every consumer dollar spent on beef. Due to market consolidation, this has reversed. By 2021, packers and retailers captured over 60 cents, while producers received less than 40 cents, despite bearing the longest production risk.

Home Depot became the default shopping destination for so many customers that manufacturers faced a choice: sell through Home Depot or lose access to consumers who wouldn't seek them elsewhere. This created a powerful network effect where scale attracted key suppliers, which reinforced customer loyalty and solidified their market dominance.

Major corporations are applying the vertical integration model from poultry ("chickenization") to beef. This system controls the supply chain from genetics to retail, aiming to eliminate the competitive cash market and turn independent ranchers into de facto contract growers.

In a functional market, raw material (cattle) and end-product (beef) prices move together. Due to high consolidation in meatpacking, packers can increase consumer beef prices while suppressing prices paid to ranchers, creating an inverse relationship and capturing the spread.