The US has lost over half its cattle operations in a generation, and the average rancher is now over 58. A long-term "cost-price squeeze" has made the profession financially unattractive, leading families to encourage their children to pursue other careers and threatening the industry's future labor supply.

Instead of immediately passing tariff costs to consumers, US corporations are initially absorbing the shock. They are mitigating the impact by reducing labor costs and accepting lower profitability, which explains the lag between tariff implementation and broad consumer inflation.

A record harvest of corn and soybeans, coupled with lower demand from China, created a surplus of turkey feed. This supply chain effect directly lowered input costs for farmers, resulting in a significant 14% Thanksgiving turkey price drop for end consumers.

Wage stagnation is not accidental but a result of two concurrent policies. By sending manufacturing jobs overseas and simultaneously bringing in low-wage labor, corporations create a market where domestic workers lose nearly all leverage to demand higher pay for remaining jobs.

Normally, high prices signal producers to increase supply. However, cattle ranchers, having experienced a sudden price collapse in 2015 after a period of record highs, no longer trust that current high prices will be sustained. This boom-bust memory breaks the typical economic supply-response cycle.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies drove revenue through price increases, but this came at the cost of falling volumes. By pushing prices closer to the perceived value, they eliminated the "consumer surplus"—the extra value a customer feels they get. This made private label alternatives more attractive and damaged long-term brand relevance.

In 1980, cattle producers received over 60 cents of every consumer dollar spent on beef. Due to market consolidation, this has reversed. By 2021, packers and retailers captured over 60 cents, while producers received less than 40 cents, despite bearing the longest production risk.

Despite high packer profitability, new processing plants struggle to enter the market. The four largest packers control 80% of the market and have long-term contracts for shelf space with major retailers, effectively locking out smaller, independent competitors from accessing consumers.

Major corporations are applying the vertical integration model from poultry ("chickenization") to beef. This system controls the supply chain from genetics to retail, aiming to eliminate the competitive cash market and turn independent ranchers into de facto contract growers.