The ratio of leading-to-coincident economic indicators is at historic lows seen only in deep recessions (1982, 2009). However, this may be skewed by the leading indicators' reliance on extremely negative consumer sentiment surveys. This divergence suggests we might be at the bottom of a cycle, not the beginning of a downturn.
Contrary to the belief that a moat always leads to large-cap status, small-cap moats often protect a profitable niche. The moat provides time and protection for management to operate, but the "castle" itself may have a limited growth runway, focusing on returns within a specific market.
Games Workshop sustains its niche by creating intellectual property (narratives, characters) that fosters a dedicated, in-person community. This community financially supports the IP creation, understanding that without the company, their shared world fades. This cycle makes the business resilient to threats like 3D printing.
Instead of treating ESG as a subjective measure of corporate virtue, view it as a risk management framework. Its true value lies in identifying and quantifying material risks—like poor labor relations—that function as off-balance sheet liabilities, ultimately impacting a company's cash flows or discount rate.
Investment research suggests the significant performance signal in governance isn't achieving a perfect score, but rather avoiding companies in the worst decile. The key is to steer clear of clear red flags—like misaligned boards or poor capital allocation—as this is where underperformance is most clearly correlated.
Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies drove revenue through price increases, but this came at the cost of falling volumes. By pushing prices closer to the perceived value, they eliminated the "consumer surplus"—the extra value a customer feels they get. This made private label alternatives more attractive and damaged long-term brand relevance.
Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers like Old Dominion build moats through extensive physical networks of service centers. A key barrier to entry for competitors is real estate; ODFL's legacy locations are in dense population centers, while new entrants face "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) opposition, forcing them to build further out.
Auto auctioneer Copart has a deep moat built on its global network. It can take a car deemed a total loss in the U.S. due to high-cost repairs (e.g., bumper sensors) and auction it in a market like Eastern Europe. Buyers there may not care about the sensors, maximizing recovery value for insurers and creating a hard-to-replicate system.