The US has lost over half its cattle operations in a generation, and the average rancher is now over 58. A long-term "cost-price squeeze" has made the profession financially unattractive, leading families to encourage their children to pursue other careers and threatening the industry's future labor supply.

Meatpackers use cheaper foreign beef to drive down prices paid to domestic ranchers. Because this beef lacks country-of-origin labeling, retailers sell it at the same high price as domestic beef, capturing the entire margin instead of passing savings to consumers.

A record harvest of corn and soybeans, coupled with lower demand from China, created a surplus of turkey feed. This supply chain effect directly lowered input costs for farmers, resulting in a significant 14% Thanksgiving turkey price drop for end consumers.

Over the past 50 years, Americans have reduced per capita beef consumption by a third by substituting it with chicken. This seemingly simple dietary shift has inadvertently cut more emissions than any other climate action before the rise of solar power, highlighting the massive climate leverage in reducing beef production and its associated land use.

Normally, high prices signal producers to increase supply. However, cattle ranchers, having experienced a sudden price collapse in 2015 after a period of record highs, no longer trust that current high prices will be sustained. This boom-bust memory breaks the typical economic supply-response cycle.

Recent streaming price increases, which are vastly outpacing inflation, serve as the primary evidence that the market is already too consolidated. Further mergers would grant companies like Netflix unchecked pricing power, transferring wealth from consumers and labor directly to shareholders in an oligopolistic environment.

Despite high packer profitability, new processing plants struggle to enter the market. The four largest packers control 80% of the market and have long-term contracts for shelf space with major retailers, effectively locking out smaller, independent competitors from accessing consumers.

Major corporations are applying the vertical integration model from poultry ("chickenization") to beef. This system controls the supply chain from genetics to retail, aiming to eliminate the competitive cash market and turn independent ranchers into de facto contract growers.

In a functional market, raw material (cattle) and end-product (beef) prices move together. Due to high consolidation in meatpacking, packers can increase consumer beef prices while suppressing prices paid to ranchers, creating an inverse relationship and capturing the spread.