The US-led intervention in Libya after Muammar Gaddafi voluntarily dismantled his nuclear program serves as a key lesson for authoritarian regimes. It demonstrated that disarmament leads to punishment, not security, directly incentivizing countries like Iran and North Korea to pursue nuclear weapons for regime survival.

The Trump administration's apparent strategy of decapitating leadership to find a compliant successor is unlikely to work in Iran. Unlike Venezuela, Iran's power is deeply institutionalized, it lacks an obvious cooperative figure, and potential US targets for that role have already been eliminated.

While a Trump administration might be tempted to cut a deal and withdraw from conflict with Iran, Israel's post-October 7th security doctrine has changed. Netanyahu's government will likely push hard for complete regime change, complicating any US efforts to de-escalate for political convenience.

Deterrence happens in the mind of the enemy. The US fails to deter Iran by attacking its Arab proxies because Iranian culture views Arabs as expendable. To be effective, deterrence must threaten what the target culture actually values. In Iran's case, this means threatening Persians, not their proxies.

The doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) relies on the threat of retaliation. However, once an enemy's nuclear missiles are in the air, that threat has failed. Sam Harris argues that launching a counter-strike at that point serves no strategic purpose and is a morally insane act of mass murder.

While a ground invasion is unlikely, a potential US military strategy involves a direct assassination attempt on Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. This high-risk decapitation strike aims to destabilize the regime's core, but the effect on the cohesion of its security forces is completely unpredictable.

Iran is caught in a strategic dilemma: claiming to be close to a nuclear weapon invites a preemptive US strike, while admitting weakness could embolden internal protest movements. This precarious balance makes their public statements highly volatile and reveals a fundamental vulnerability.

The current geopolitical landscape shows that nations with nuclear weapons can act with impunity, while non-nuclear nations are vulnerable. The West's hesitant support for Ukraine reinforces this lesson, creating a rational incentive for smaller countries to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, risking dangerous proliferation.

Geopolitical solutions based on earthly incentives like economic development are bound to fail when dealing with an ideology focused on martyrdom. If people believe the ultimate goal is paradise after death, they won't compromise for a better life for their children now.