The defense procurement system was built when technology platforms lasted for decades, prioritizing getting it perfect over getting it fast. This risk-averse model is now a liability in an era of rapid innovation, as it stifles the experimentation and failure necessary for speed.
The Ukrainian conflict demonstrates the power of a fast, iterative cycle: deploy technology, see if it works, and adapt quickly. This agile approach, common in startups but alien to traditional defense, is essential for the U.S. to maintain its technological edge and avoid being outpaced.
The Department of Defense is moving from rigid, program-specific contracts to a portfolio model. New Portfolio Acquisition Executives can now reallocate funds from underperforming projects to more promising startups mid-stream, rewarding agility and results over incumbency.
The conflict in Ukraine exposed the vulnerability of expensive, "exquisite" military platforms (like tanks) to inexpensive technologies (like drones). This has shifted defense priorities toward cheap, mass-producible, "attritable" systems. This fundamental change in product and economics creates a massive opportunity for startups to innovate outside the traditional defense prime model.
Decades of adding regulations without subtracting have made the current defense procurement framework unsalvageable through minor adjustments. To achieve necessary speed and efficiency, policymakers must abandon the current system and start fresh, focusing on outcome-based contracts rather than process compliance.
Luckey reveals that Anduril prioritized institutional engagement over engineering in its early days, initially hiring more lawyers and lobbyists. The biggest challenge wasn't building the technology, but convincing the Department of Defense and political stakeholders to believe in a new procurement model, proving that shaping the system is a prerequisite for success.
The government's procurement process often defaults to bidding out projects to established players like Lockheed Martin, even if a startup presents a breakthrough. Success requires navigating this bureaucratic reality, not just superior engineering.
A major shift in government procurement for space defense now favors startups. The need for rapid innovation in a newly contested space environment has moved the government from merely tolerating startups to actively seeking them out over traditional prime contractors.
A major upcoming change in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) is the removal of "past performance" as a key criterion in procurement. This rule has historically favored large, incumbent defense contractors over innovative startups. Eliminating it allows new companies to compete on the merits of their technology, representing a significant unlock for the entire defense tech ecosystem.
Unlike traditional contractors paid for time and materials, Anduril invests its own capital to develop products first. This 'defense product company' model aligns incentives with the government's need for speed and effectiveness, as profits are tied to rapid, successful delivery, not prolonged development cycles.
Contrary to popular belief, military procurement involves some of the most rigorous safety and reliability testing. Current generative AI models, with their inherent high error rates, fall far short of these established thresholds that have long been required for defense systems.