Instead of a risky invasion, Xi Jinping's preference is to slowly suffocate Taiwan's will to resist. This strategy involves chipping away at U.S. commitments and eroding the conviction of regional allies, buying time while avoiding a costly direct conflict.

Beijing’s core strategy for Taiwan is to convince its populace that "resistance is futile" and no outside help is coming. U.S. arms sales and rhetorical support from allies are particularly disruptive because they directly counter this psychological narrative of isolation, undermining China's goal of a coerced unification.

Recognizing the US may be unable or unwilling to defend it, Japan is shifting its strategy. It now explicitly names China as a threat and is building its own "porcupine" defense of unmanned systems to protract a conflict while waiting for US aid.

Strengthening Taiwan's own defense capabilities directly reduces the risk and burden on US forces in a potential conflict. Dollar for dollar, investing in Taiwan's military could be a more efficient use of funds for US security interests than simply adding more to the US budget.

Taiwan's willingness to prepare and fight is heavily predicated on its belief in potential US support. Ambiguous US policy, characterized as a move from 'strategic ambiguity to just ambiguity,' directly erodes Taiwan's domestic resolve and mobilization efforts.

Contrary to popular comparisons with Ukraine, Taiwan has 'zero chance' of defending itself independently. Its entire military posture is designed to hold out long enough for the United States to intervene, not to win a war of self-defense. This makes U.S. intervention speed the critical factor.

Learning from Ukraine's resistance against Russia, Taiwan is shifting its defense strategy from relying on large US arms packages to developing its own indigenous, asymmetric capabilities like drones, anti-ship missiles, and sea mines to counter a numerically superior Chinese force.

Focusing solely on deterring a military invasion of Taiwan is insufficient. The US must develop capabilities to counter China's gray zone tactics and manage the economic fallout of a crisis. Failure to do so could lead to a US concession and a Chinese victory without a shot being fired.

While the U.S. is preoccupied with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, China has significantly increased its military presence around Taiwan. This may not be just a show of force, but a strategic dress rehearsal for an invasion, testing capabilities while global attention is focused elsewhere.