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When trust in institutions is eroded, conspiracy theories with strong internal logic—like a staged assassination attempt to justify a new White House ballroom—become difficult to dismiss. The inability to immediately rule out such coordination highlights a dangerous level of societal distrust.
The tendency to blame a single entity for disparate negative events isn't about logic but about satisfying a deep psychological need for order and control. This "derangement syndrome" provides a simple, pre-made narrative that assigns blame and creates a sense of understanding, regardless of evidence.
Machiavelli's focus on indirect rule and the 'effectual truth' behind public statements encourages a conspiratorial mindset. By teaching that politics is what happens 'behind the scenes,' he primes people to distrust stated principles and seek hidden motives, a hallmark of modern conspiracy theories.
The current crisis of faith in society isn't new; people have always known individuals can be corrupt. What has changed is the demonstrable proof that core institutions—government, media, etc.—are systemically incompetent and corrupt. This breakdown erodes the foundational ideologies, like democracy, that these institutions were meant to uphold.
The erosion of trusted, centralized news sources by social media creates an information vacuum. This forces people into a state of 'conspiracy brain,' where they either distrust all information or create flawed connections between unverified data points.
Supporting Trump after he tried to overturn an election required a new level of justification. Backers embraced extreme narratives, like left-wing elites being child predators, because only a threat perceived as equally or more severe than Trump's actions could make their continued support feel morally coherent.
Humans crave control. When faced with uncertainty, the brain compensates by creating narratives and seeing patterns where none exist. This explains why a conspiracy theory about a planned event can feel more comforting than a random, chaotic one—the former offers an illusion of understandable order.
Michael Shermer suggests that when people latch onto misinformation, it's less about the event's specifics and more a manifestation of a pre-existing tribal belief. The false story simply reinforces a general sentiment, like "I don't trust that group," making the specific facts irrelevant.
The human brain resists ambiguity and seeks closure. When a significant, factual event occurs but is followed by a lack of official information (often for legitimate investigative reasons), this creates an "open loop." People will naturally invent narratives to fill that void, giving rise to conspiracy theories.
When institutions collapse, the comforting narratives they provide disappear. This forces people to grapple with profound, unanswerable questions like 'Why is there something instead of nothing?' In this void, alternative explanations like conspiracies, simulations, or religion rush in to provide structure.
The current level of hyper-partisanship is not a recent phenomenon but the culmination of a continuous, 40-year decline in public trust across all major institutions, including government, media, and church. Trust was significantly higher even during past national traumas like the assassinations of the 1960s and Watergate.