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  3. Making Sense with Sam Harris
  5. #441 — The Threat of Civil War
#441 — The Threat of Civil War

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris · Oct 31, 2025

Author Stephen Marsh discusses the precursors to an American civil war, viewing the US's political instability from a Canadian perspective.

Today's Hyper-Partisanship Is Built on 40 Years of Eroding Institutional Trust

The current level of hyper-partisanship is not a recent phenomenon but the culmination of a continuous, 40-year decline in public trust across all major institutions, including government, media, and church. Trust was significantly higher even during past national traumas like the assassinations of the 1960s and Watergate.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago

A Nation Becoming "Minority Majority" Is a Major Global Predictor of Political Violence

The transition to a "minority majority" country, where the formerly dominant ethnic group falls below 50% of the population, is a powerful historical indicator of civil war. This pattern is not unique to the US or white populations; it has been observed globally, including in India, suggesting a deep-seated human response to demographic shifts.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago

A Modern US Civil War Would Be Defined by a Vicious Cycle of Suppressing Violence

Unlike historical conflicts with pitted armies, a contemporary American civil war would manifest as exploding political violence. The key dynamic is that state attempts to suppress this violence would themselves become a primary cause for more violence, creating a dangerous feedback loop seen in conflicts in Algeria, Vietnam, and Syria.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago

Author Stephen Marsh Argues Blaming Trump for US Decline Is a "Mug's Game"

Donald Trump is not the root cause of America's instability but rather a symptom of deeper, long-term issues. These include a decades-long breakdown in institutional trust, the collapse of the "American dream" of upward mobility, and extreme inequality. Focusing solely on Trump distracts from these more fundamental drivers of political crisis.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago

America's Political Divide Isn't About Success vs. Failure; It's a Shared Belief in Systemic Collapse

The perception of national decline in the US is not limited to one political side. Polling indicates that both left and right-leaning citizens believe the country's constitutional order and institutions are breaking down. The key difference is that each side is simply happy when their faction is temporarily "winning" the process of collapse.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago

Canada Considers Nuclear Weapons and "Whole Society Defense" Against a Potential Second Trump Administration

Facing a potential second Trump presidency, Canada is seriously discussing drastic national security changes. Options include developing nuclear capabilities and adopting a Finnish-style "whole society defense" model to make any potential US aggression too costly to be worthwhile. This reflects a fundamental shift in how Canada views its southern neighbor.

#441 — The Threat of Civil War thumbnail

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

Making Sense with Sam Harris·4 months ago