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The next catalyst for Pershing is likely a transaction via its SPARC. A recent surge in SPARC's quarterly legal fees, from ~$50k to over $1 million, indicates that a significant deal is actively in the works.

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The PS management company is expected to distribute most of its cash flow as dividends. The team's compensation is tied to their large equity stake and performance fees, not high salaries, allowing for a clean income statement.

Contrary to a slow market narrative, deal flow has sharply accelerated. Blackstone's Michael Zwadsky revealed that August 2024 was the firm's biggest investment committee month in three years, and the summer was the third most active for M&A since 2008, signaling a real inflection point for transactions.

Despite the structural limitations of a '40 Act fund, Bill Ackman's team is expected to find innovative methods to continue its successful macro hedging strategy, a key component of its historical outperformance.

To participate in highly competitive late-stage deals, some VCs organize SPVs without management fees or carry. While not directly profitable, this helps the startup fundraise, strengthens the relationship, protects the VC's original investment, and signals access to LPs for future funds.

With truly permanent capital and a lean team of 50, Pershing's management company ($PS) has unparalleled operating leverage. Its AUM can double in three years from performance alone, justifying a 30x+ multiple on fee-related earnings.

Grant Stanis joined TeamSupport as CEO in 2024, six years after PE firm Level Equity's 2018 acquisition. This long hold period, combined with bringing in an experienced "transactional" CEO, strongly indicates the company is being prepared for a sale within the next 12-24 months.

A significant, yet uncommon, sign of an LP-friendly VC is returning a portion of the carry from Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to the original fund's LPs. This acknowledges that the main fund's resources and reputation sourced the follow-on investment opportunity in the first place.

M&A is driven by CEO confidence, which is heavily influenced by the regulatory environment. A subtle shift in regulatory posture from a definitive 'no' to a 'maybe' is enough to unlock massive pent-up demand for transformative deals, potentially leading to a historic year for M&A.

Large LPs are increasingly investing directly in top-tier private tech companies, circumventing traditional VC funds. They gain access through SPVs with minimal fees, creating a competitive dynamic where VCs must justify their value proposition against direct, low-cost access to the most sought-after deals.

The podcast hosts discuss the rampant use of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to trade secondary shares in hot private companies like SpaceX and Anthropic. They predict the legal mess created will spawn a nearly billion-dollar industry focused solely on litigating and unwinding these complex, unauthorized deals.