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With truly permanent capital and a lean team of 50, Pershing's management company ($PS) has unparalleled operating leverage. Its AUM can double in three years from performance alone, justifying a 30x+ multiple on fee-related earnings.
Public markets rewarding asset managers with 25-30x+ multiples on fee-related earnings (FRE) created a powerful incentive to prioritize AUM growth over performance. This valuation arbitrage fueled the "factory model" of industrialized asset gathering to maximize stable management fee profits.
The PS management company is expected to distribute most of its cash flow as dividends. The team's compensation is tied to their large equity stake and performance fees, not high salaries, allowing for a clean income statement.
Top asset managers have significantly higher margins, better growth prospects, and fewer credit or regulatory risks than banks. Despite this, the market can value them at lower multiples than many banks, creating a potential relative valuation opportunity.
Critics argue Pershing can't grow AUM while its funds trade at discounts. However, the historic $5 billion launch of $PSUS, while its London fund ($PSH) traded at a 30% discount, proves the team can successfully raise new capital regardless.
Due to its massive scale, franchise quality, and expected corporate access (e.g., quarterly earnings calls), $PSUS will likely trade differently than typical closed-end funds, potentially commanding a premium to NAV.
Asset managers collect a fixed management fee regardless of performance, ensuring stable revenue. They also earn a large percentage of profits (carried interest), creating immense upside potential. This combination makes it one of the most resilient and profitable business models.
Typical asset manager valuation as a percentage of AUM is misleading for Pershing. Unlike peers whose "permanent capital" is often 6-year funds, Pershing's capital is truly permanent, and its operating leverage is vastly superior, justifying a different valuation framework.
The ultimate advantage in asset management, used by Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman, is 'permanent capital.' This structure, often a public company, prevents investors from withdrawing funds during market downturns. It eliminates the existential risk of forced selling that plagues traditional hedge funds.
The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.
By merging with insurer Athene, Apollo secured $450 billion in permanent capital. This strategic move freed them from the constant "vintage fund treadmill" of fundraising that constrains other alternative asset managers, enabling a new business model.