In rapidly evolving AI markets, founders should prioritize user acquisition and market share over achieving positive unit economics. The core assumption is that underlying model costs will decrease exponentially, making current negative margins an acceptable short-term trade-off for long-term growth.
In today's market, achieving massive growth is seen as the hardest problem to solve. Investors are comfortable backing companies with initially poor retention or margins, like early ChatGPT, as long as they demonstrate hypergrowth. The belief is that growth is paramount, and other metrics can be optimized over time.
For a true AI-native product, extremely high margins might indicate it isn't using enough AI, as inference has real costs. Founders should price for adoption, believing model costs will fall, and plan to build strong margins later through sophisticated, usage-based pricing tiers rather than optimizing prematurely.
Redpoint Ventures' Erica Brescia states the current investment thesis for AI application-layer companies: disregard margins entirely for now. The focus should be on aggressive growth, raising capital, and building a brand to be seen as the category winner, even if the product is still early and unprofitable. This is a "play to win" strategy.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
AI companies operate under the assumption that LLM prices will trend towards zero. This strategic bet means they intentionally de-prioritize heavy investment in cost optimization today, focusing instead on capturing the market and building features, confident that future, cheaper models will solve their margin problems for them.
Companies using new technologies merely to cut costs and boost margins often fail. The winning strategy, proven during the containerization era by firms like Walmart, is to pass efficiencies to consumers. This drives volume and captures the market, a superior playbook for AI adoption.
Unlike SaaS, where high gross margins are key, an AI company with very high margins likely isn't seeing significant use of its core AI features. Low margins signal that customers are actively using compute-intensive products, a positive early indicator.
Many AI startups prioritize growth, leading to unsustainable gross margins (below 15%) due to high compute costs. This is a ticking time bomb. Eventually, these companies must undertake a costly, time-consuming re-architecture to optimize for cost and build a viable business.
Traditional SaaS metrics like 80%+ gross margins are misleading for AI companies. High inference costs lower margins, but if the absolute gross profit per customer is multiples higher than a SaaS equivalent, it's a superior business. The focus should shift from margin percentages to absolute gross profit dollars and multiples.
An emerging AI growth strategy involves using expensive frontier models to acquire users and distribution at an explosive rate, accepting poor initial margins. Once critical mass is reached, the company introduces its own fine-tuned, cheaper model, drastically improving unit economics overnight and capitalizing on the established user base.