For VCs, the most powerful force is inertia. When a formidable founder demonstrates tremendous, non-linear progress, the default assumption should be that this momentum will continue indefinitely. This mental model helps overcome the tendency to underestimate markets when faced with exceptional execution.
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The power law isn't just a portfolio theory; it's a mental model. Deeply understanding that a few outlier investments drive all returns helps new VCs overcome risk aversion. It shifts their focus from avoiding failure to seeking opportunities with massive upside, which is essential for success.
Contrary to the instinct to sell a big winner, top fund managers often hold onto their best-performing companies. The initial 10x return is a strong signal of a best-in-class product, team, and market, indicating potential for continued exponential growth rather than a peak.
A startup's trajectory directly mirrors its founder's psychology and leadership capabilities. The business can only scale as fast as the CEO can evolve, particularly after the initial "brute force" stage (around $1-3M revenue) when leadership, not individual contribution, becomes the primary driver of growth.
The hardest transition from entrepreneur to investor is curbing the instinct to solve problems and imagine "what could be." The best venture deals aren't about fixing a company but finding teams already on a trajectory to succeed, then helping change the slope of that success line on the margin.
The firm distinguishes between speed (magnitude) and velocity (magnitude plus direction). Founders are encouraged to focus on velocity, ensuring the entire team is moving quickly *in the right direction*. This prevents wasted effort where mere motion is mistaken for progress, a common trap in turbulent markets.
Financial models struggle to project sustained high growth rates (>30% YoY). Analysts naturally revert to the mean, causing them to undervalue companies that defy this and maintain high growth for years, creating an opportunity for investors who spot this persistence.
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The most investable founders possess a rare, magnetic ability to conjure essential resources. They can convince top talent to take pay cuts, persuade investors to fund an unproven vision, and acquire their first crucial customers against all odds. This trifecta of materializing labor, capital, and customers is a powerful leading indicator of success.
A founder's credibility acts as a multiplier on the perceived value of their narrative. An entrepreneur like Elon Musk, with a track record of success, receives a "multiple expansion on trust," allowing their futuristic stories to attract capital at valuations and scales that a first-time founder could not achieve.
When evaluating revolutionary ideas, traditional Total Addressable Market (TAM) analysis is useless. VCs should instead bet on founders with a "world-bending vision" capable of inducing a new market, not just capturing an existing one. Have the humility to admit you can't predict market size and instead back the visionary founder.
The most successful founders rarely get the solution right on their first attempt. Their strength lies in persistence combined with adaptability. They treat their initial ideas as hypotheses, take in new data, and are willing to change their approach repeatedly to find what works.
