While international markets have more volatility and lower trust, their biggest advantage is inefficiency. Many basic services are underdeveloped, creating enormous 'low-hanging fruit' opportunities. Providing a great, reliable service in a market where few things work well can create immense and durable value.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted Turkey as a case study where political pressure to cut interest rates led to a collapse in confidence and crippling 80% inflation. This demonstrates that a central bank's independence from politics is critical for maintaining economic stability.

Western investors visiting emerging markets often invest in businesses they personally enjoy in affluent areas. This is a critical error, as these ventures aren't scalable to the broader local population with a much lower average income. The real opportunity lies in the mass market.

Unlike previous years dominated by a single theme, 2026 will require a more nuanced approach. Performance will be driven by a range of factors including country-specific fiscal dynamics, the end of rate-cutting cycles, election outcomes, and beneficiaries of AI capex. Investors must move from a single macro view to a multi-factor differentiation strategy.

Countries like Poland, which transitioned to capitalism relatively recently, are under-followed by global investors. This creates opportunities to find "boring compounder" stocks, such as supermarket chain Dino Polska, at attractive valuations. These businesses are often run by outsider CEOs and are insulated from global hype cycles like AI.

During periods of country-specific fear or uncertainty, investors sell off all assets indiscriminately. High-quality companies are discarded along with low-quality ones, making country-level risk analysis more critical for investors than sector or individual company analysis.

Many commodity funds make bold macro predictions (e.g., on inflation) but take timid, diversified equity positions. A superior strategy is the reverse: maintain a neutral macro view while making concentrated, 'bold' bets on specific companies with powerful operational catalysts that generate alpha regardless of the macro environment.

Within any emerging market country, the annual return dispersion between equities, local debt, and hard currency debt is enormous. An investor who can consistently pick the winning asset class, even just over 50% of the time, will generate superior long-term returns due to this massive performance gap.

Unlike Western PE where tasks are outsourced to bankers and lawyers, investors in markets like Vietnam must be entrepreneurial. They need to own every part of the deal process—legal, operational, financial—to navigate local nuances and manage risk effectively, rather than just coordinating experts.