The government has recruited tens of thousands of poorly trained "volunteer defense forces," primarily from dominant ethnic groups. These militias target minority groups like the Fulani, effectively turning the conflict into one of ethnic cleansing and driving more people into the arms of the jihadists they are supposed to be fighting.

Limited US media coverage of Africa allows rivals like China and Russia to dominate the narrative with well-funded propaganda. This makes it difficult for AFRICOM's story of genuine partnership to resonate, creating a significant strategic disadvantage in the information environment.

Sending troops after an attack in Nigeria can be counterproductive. The military is too overstretched to maintain a presence, so the intervention often provokes reprisal attacks against local communities once the soldiers have left, increasing long-term risk for civilians.

Despite nearly 20 years of significant US investment in training African special forces, jihadism has not been contained. Instead, it has spread from the Sahel to coastal nations, questioning the long-term efficacy of this expensive, hands-on approach.

Regardless of intent, military actions like bombings create personal tragedies that radicalize individuals. This blowback is an unavoidable consequence of war, leading to revenge attacks and perpetuating the conflict, a factor often underestimated in strategic planning.

Confrontational protest movements can backfire. By making an entire community feel targeted, even if the intent is to challenge a specific extremist element, such movements can alienate moderates. This creates a fertile recruiting ground for the very groups the activists oppose.

Countering the "blowback" theory, Harris argues that the perception of jihadist success—like the rise of the ISIS caliphate—is what truly inspires new recruits. Therefore, ensuring jihadists are consistently and publicly defeated is the most effective counter-recruitment strategy.

Russia's information warfare is less about creating new narratives and more about identifying and exacerbating existing societal fissures. By amplifying local opposition to a new military base, for instance, they frame a legitimate debate as a conflict between citizens and a corrupt state, thereby eroding trust and national unity from within.

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—the three countries most impacted by jihadism—declined to participate in a major US-led training exercise. This boycott signals a significant geopolitical shift away from Western security partnerships and towards Russia.