The productivity boom from AI won't materialize from workers simply using new tools. Citing historical parallels with electricity and computers, the real gains are unlocked only when companies fundamentally restructure their operations and business models around the technology.
Violence in Nigeria is not from a single entity like Boko Haram, which has splintered. The crisis is a complex interplay between competing jihadist factions and non-ideological criminal "bandits." These groups compete for territory and resources, creating a chaotic and rapidly spreading conflict.
Sending troops after an attack in Nigeria can be counterproductive. The military is too overstretched to maintain a presence, so the intervention often provokes reprisal attacks against local communities once the soldiers have left, increasing long-term risk for civilians.
A simple framework to estimate AI's current economic impact multiplies three key metrics: the percentage of workers using AI (~40%), their weekly usage intensity (~2 hours), and the average task efficiency gain (15-30%). This calculation reveals a modest but tangible current productivity increase.
Productivity models often wrongly assume time saved by AI is redeployed into other work. In reality, many employees use efficiency gains to finish early. This 'human slack' factor dampens macro-level productivity gains, except in highly driven fields like tech, where workers use it to work even more.