The latest US sanctions campaign against Iran was presented as a major offensive but lacked significant new actions, such as sanctions on major Chinese banks. This suggests the US is pivoting from military options to economic threats that it may be hesitant to fully enforce, risking that the Iranian regime perceives it as weakness.

The US's reluctance to impose secondary sanctions on major Chinese financial institutions for trading with Iran shows a critical limitation of its economic pressure strategy. The desire to maintain stable relations with global powers like China forces the US to moderate its sanctions, making the threats appear hollow and less effective.

The US-Iran conflict cycle demonstrates that when neither side can achieve a decisive military or economic victory, and both are unwilling to compromise, the result is a protracted stalemate. Limited strikes and sanctions inflict pain but fail to force capitulation, leading to an endless loop of low-grade warfare and failed diplomacy.

The U.S. mistakenly assumes Iran will react rationally to military pressure, as the West would. However, Iran's regime has a different calculus, valuing time and being more willing to let its populace suffer, making stalling tactics highly effective against American political and economic pressures.

The idea of the US "breaking" Iran via sanctions or military force is unrealistic. Iran's ideological resilience, combined with strategic and material support from China and Russia who benefit from the conflict, ensures its survival against American pressure.

North Korea's extreme, self-imposed COVID lockdown mirrored the "maximum pressure" sanctions the U.S. had long advocated. The regime's survival through this period provided a real-world test, proving that even complete economic isolation is insufficient to force denuclearization.

China has explicitly stated it will ignore US sanctions against Iran, signaling a major shift in global power dynamics. With the world's second-largest economy refusing to comply, the US's ability to use economic warfare as a primary foreign policy tool is severely diminished.

The US expects sanctions and military threats to force negotiation based on economic self-interest. However, nations like Iran, driven by theological and ideological principles, often prioritize perceived long-term divine victory over short-term economic hardship, rendering typical US leverage ineffective.

The Iranian regime is expected to withstand current economic pressures by trying to 'wait out' the crisis. The belief is that the negative impact of the resulting energy shock on the global economy will eventually weaken international resolve before their own economy buckles.