The idea of the US "breaking" Iran via sanctions or military force is unrealistic. Iran's ideological resilience, combined with strategic and material support from China and Russia who benefit from the conflict, ensures its survival against American pressure.
The post-WWII order is collapsing as both Japan and Germany abandon their prohibitions on offensive militaries. This is empirical evidence that key allies no longer trust the American "military umbrella" for protection and are preparing for a multipolar world.
China used America's 21-year distraction in Afghanistan and Iraq to evolve from a widget manufacturer to a global tech and military power. By observing US errors, it strategically skipped entire stages of geopolitical development.
America's intense focus on its conflict with Iran creates a power vacuum, effectively giving other nations a green light to settle scores with their neighbors. With the world's 'peacekeeper' distracted, regional conflicts are escalating globally.
The outcome in Ukraine will determine the world's dominant governance model for the next 50 years. A Ukrainian victory would reignite global hope in democracy, while a Russian win would validate and supercharge the rise of authoritarian "strongman" governments.
China is waging economic, not military, war. By creating its own self-sufficient tech ecosystem and offering cheaper alternatives globally, it aims to break the world's reliance on the American tech monopoly and peel away its economic allies.
The West sees China's demographic crisis as a fatal flaw. However, China's leadership may view the loss of hundreds of millions of elderly citizens as a necessary, if brutal, transition to a high-tech economy that increases per capita GDP.
The US-Iran war provides China a three-fold opportunity: watch the US lose global public opinion, build an alliance with Iran and Russia by providing covert support, and create a precedent for its own potential aggressive actions against Taiwan.
An empire's definitive decline is marked by a "Suez Canal moment"—a failure to control a key strategic point. The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, not the current Iran conflict, may have already been that irreversible signal of diminished global power.
Observing the US struggle in Iran, countries worldwide are asking "How much Chinese should I buy?" They are actively diversifying their currency holdings, infrastructure technology, and diplomatic ties away from the US to hedge against its perceived decline.