Analysts suggest China's strategy is to prolong the U.S.-Iran conflict. By flattering the U.S. president to avoid repercussions, China benefits as America expends military and financial resources. This allows China to gain global influence, fill the power vacuum, and secure strategic advantages.

The conflict provides a lifeline to Putin through higher energy prices and a distracted U.S. military. For China, every moment the U.S. is preoccupied with the Middle East is a moment it isn't focused on the Indo-Pacific, furthering their long-term strategic goals.

The conflict benefits China by allowing it to secure its own energy supply through a direct deal with Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In exchange, China can help Iran rebuild its military and infrastructure, creating a more deeply integrated 'axis' that realigns regional power against U.S. interests.

Iran's strategy is not to win a conventional war but to play a waiting game, believing it can withstand damage until the U.S. loses its political will to continue the conflict, especially with an unpopular president facing midterms. This turns the situation into a potential "forever war" where the exit strategy is the main challenge.

Most analyses assume the U.S. can simply wear down Iran. This view ignores that the conflict is existential for China and Russia, who depend on regional stability. They possess significant leverage (e.g., control over U.S. military supply chains) and are unlikely to allow Iran to collapse.

The US-Iran war provides China a three-fold opportunity: watch the US lose global public opinion, build an alliance with Iran and Russia by providing covert support, and create a precedent for its own potential aggressive actions against Taiwan.

China has explicitly stated it will ignore US sanctions against Iran, signaling a major shift in global power dynamics. With the world's second-largest economy refusing to comply, the US's ability to use economic warfare as a primary foreign policy tool is severely diminished.

In prolonged conflicts, Iran has an asymmetric advantage over the U.S. because its regime doesn't face election cycles. It can absorb economic and military pain indefinitely, waiting for the U.S. political will to inevitably fracture.

The Iran conflict serves the strategic interests of China and Russia by distracting US attention and draining its military resources. It consumes critical assets (like Patriot missiles needed for Ukraine) and diverts political focus from containing America's primary geopolitical rivals in Europe and Asia.