A president who campaigned against 'forever wars' can be trapped by the political need for a clear victory. If a diplomatic off-ramp isn't found quickly, the pressure to escalate increases, ironically risking the very type of prolonged conflict they opposed.

A population can be habituated to war through gradual escalation. By starting with seemingly small, contained "lightning strikes," each subsequent step feels less shocking. This incremental approach can lead a nation into a major conflict without a single decisive moment of public debate or consent.

Historically, rising and ruling powers don't stumble into war directly. Instead, their heightened distrust creates a tinderbox where a seemingly minor incident involving a third party (like the assassination in Sarajevo pre-WWI) can escalate uncontrollably into a catastrophic conflict.

Unlike nations that have historically endured massive losses, the United States has a low willingness to suffer casualties, which is a strategic vulnerability. Adversaries understand that American political will for a prolonged conflict is fragile and can be broken by simply waiting out the initial shock and absorbing blows.

In conflicts, a critical error is to believe that escalating pressure will automatically force an opponent to back down. This overlooks that for the adversary, the fight may be existential, leaving them no room to retreat and thus leading to a more dangerous conflict.

When a leader initiates a conflict, an exit that leaves the situation worse than before is politically untenable. This dynamic creates immense pressure to avoid withdrawal and instead escalate involvement, as backing out becomes "political suicide."

A plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island ignores immense logistical challenges and underestimates Iranian resolve. Rather than compelling Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, this telegraphed move would likely create a catastrophic hostage situation for US forces.

Initial military actions, like successful bombings, can feel like victories. However, they often fail to solve the core political issue, trapping leaders into escalating the conflict further to achieve the original strategic goal, as they don't want to accept failure.

The multi-stage Iran hostage rescue mission, involving different aircraft, desert landings, and covert teams, was so intricate that it lacked resilience. A few predictable setbacks, like a sandstorm and mechanical failures, caused the entire high-stakes plan to collapse.