Russia has transformed its economy to be dependent on war production. Peace would bring back radicalized soldiers, risking a military coup. This creates a powerful incentive for Putin to maintain the conflict, making a peaceful resolution more complex and dangerous for Europe.

Despite military momentum against Russia, Ukrainian society is fracturing internally. Public discontent is not primarily driven by war exhaustion but by a growing distrust of institutions, elite corruption scandals implicating the presidency, and perceived injustices in military conscription policies.

Ukraine's military success stems from its 'crowdsourced' and networked society, which innovates rapidly from the bottom up. In contrast, Fiona Hill argues Vladimir Putin fears activating his own society, relying instead on a rigid, top-down structure that stifles the very power Ukraine has harnessed.

Russia's innovation in long-range strike systems extends the war far behind the front lines. This creates a psychological toll on soldiers, who become distracted and worried about their families' safety, potentially leading to desertion and a subtle erosion of fighting spirit.

Ukraine's most realistic theory of success is not reclaiming all territory militarily, but leveraging its advantages to stabilize the front and inflict unsustainable casualties and economic costs on Russia. This strategy aims to make the war so futile for Moscow that it forces a favorable negotiated settlement.

The invasion has crippled Russia's long-term prospects. It has suffered generational setbacks in economic and demographic development, diminished its global reputation, and triggered a massive military buildup in Europe, worsening its security position.

For most of the war, the Russian populace could ignore the conflict. However, Ukrainian drone strikes causing fuel shortages and hitting factories have made the war a domestic problem, creating a sense of futility and palpable discontent that the elite can no longer ignore.

A key architect of Ukraine's drone program has pivoted the military's objective away from capturing territory. The new strategy uses drones to target individual Russian soldiers, aiming for a kill rate that exceeds Russia's recruitment rate. This redefines victory as causing a demographic and logistical collapse of the enemy force, rather than controlling land.

Despite perceived advantages, Russia's military performance in 2025 was poor. It achieved only incremental gains at the cost of soaring casualties, pushing their manpower losses beyond recruitment rates. This trend suggests that time is increasingly working against Moscow's ability to sustain offensive operations.