Timothy Snyder warns that Ukraine and Russia are developing the world's only two modern armed forces through constant drone innovation and adaptation. Because Russia rapidly copies Ukrainian technological breakthroughs at scale, allowing the conflict to drag on trains the Russian army in cutting-edge methods. Snyder notes that the United States and NATO continue practicing archaic military doctrines, creating an unrecognized long-term strategic disadvantage against a modernized Russian force.
Snyder and Galloway argue that supporting Ukraine's defense is the most practical way to deter China from invading Taiwan. When a technologically sophisticated military successfully repels an invasion, it demonstrates to Beijing how costly offensive operations are against asymmetric technology in the 21st century. Snyder warns that withholding support from Ukraine undermines this deterrent, encouraging Chinese aggression and raising the likelihood of a hot war over Taiwan.
Permitting a nuclear-armed power to defeat a non-nuclear state using nuclear coercion destroys non-proliferation incentives. Snyder highlights that Ukraine relinquished its nuclear arsenal under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in return for security assurances that went unfulfilled. If Russia achieves victory, middle powers worldwide will conclude that developing their own nuclear arsenals is the only reliable safeguard against major powers, drastically raising global nuclear risk.
Russia initially conducted its invasion as a detached 'consumer war,' where citizens experienced victories through media without direct disruption to daily civilian life. However, Snyder argues that Ukrainian long-range strikes and casualty deficits are forcing mandatory mobilization over paid contract soldiers. Drafting ordinary citizens fundamentally changes family and social dynamics, making it politically risky for Putin to sustain the war past spring.
Snyder argues that deploying emissaries who view international relations as transactional deals between individuals cripples diplomacy. Mediators like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner struggle to engage with Ukraine because they view figures like Putin as peers while failing to grasp concepts like national sovereignty, collective rights, or public interest. Consequently, their framework reduces statecraft to satisfying oligarchic aspirations rather than negotiating legitimate state interests.
In conceptualizing 'superpower suicide,' Snyder argues that leaders undermining American democratic institutions view the Soviet collapse as an inspirational template rather than a warning. Aspiring oligarchs who depend on state power to acquire personal wealth see the end of the Soviet Union as a moment where a few individuals broke public systems to seize resources. This mindset drives policies aimed at breaking down national institutions for personal gain.
Facing an unreliable United States alongside adversarial actions from China and Russia, middle-power democracies are banding together for mutual defense. Snyder points to Canada's Mark Carney government connecting trade and security with the European Union and Ukraine. By deepening alliances among themselves, democratic nations aim to forge an economic bloc larger than any single superpower, mitigating their vulnerability to foreign aggression and erratic American trade policies.
Snyder argues that modern democratic backsliding stems from lingering imperial habits. Historically, European empires applied rights to an internal group while exploiting an out-group. For former expanding powers like the United States, maintaining a viable republic requires moving past the instinct to create internal tiers of citizenship, mass incarceration, or disenfranchisement, and instead embracing universal rights; otherwise, societies risk sliding back into oligarchy or imperial collapse.