A significant stagnation in job growth since May coincides with both new tariff implementations (reducing labor demand) and stricter immigration policies (constraining labor supply). This combination has created a powerful dual shock that has effectively halted job creation in the US economy.

The common description of the 2025 economy as "resilient" is challenged. An economy growing below its potential, leading to rising unemployment and no net job growth, is better described as "fragile." This state is unsustainable and risks devolving into a recession if conditions do not improve.

Mastercard's Chief Economist argues the labor market is in balance, not collapsing. A slowdown from 175k to ~70k jobs/month is a necessary correction from an unsustainable, post-pandemic surge. With both labor demand (hiring) and supply decreasing, key metrics like the unemployment rate remain stable, indicating equilibrium rather than decline.

Fed Chair Powell highlighted that annual benchmark revisions to labor data could reveal that the U.S. economy is already shedding jobs, contrary to initial reports. This statistical nuance, creating a "curious balance" with a stable unemployment rate, makes the Fed more inclined to cut rates to manage this underlying uncertainty.

By averaging data from ADP and Reveglio Labs, two key private sector sources, economists forecast that official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job growth figures for October and November will likely be close to zero. This points to a significant slowdown and stagnation in the labor market.

Benchmark revisions to 2025 jobs data show the labor market was significantly weaker than initially reported. This suggests a 'Main Street recession' occurred, which was papered over by massive AI capital expenditures and spending by top-percentile earners.

Analysis shows a direct correlation between the April 4th tariff announcements and the subsequent halt in net job creation. For months, job growth has hovered near zero, suggesting the trade policy shift had an immediate, negative impact on the labor market.

The vast majority (84%) of job gains in 2025 occurred in the first four months of the year. Following a political event dubbed "Liberation Day" in April, job growth stalled completely, suggesting a significant inflection point in the labor market's trajectory.

During government data blackouts, economists can approximate the official BLS payroll survey with high accuracy. An average of private payroll data from ADP and Revealio Labs has shown a 95% correlation with the government's numbers over the past five years, suggesting underlying job growth is near zero.