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In a moment of candor, Accel's Miles Clements shared that the firm's partners hold global offsites to analyze their biggest misses, such as not investing early in foundation model companies. They grade their performance against the world's top 50 private companies and strategize on how to win the next 50, showcasing a rigorous process for self-correction.
Citing a quote from legendary investor Jim Breyer, Miles Clements emphasizes that while the science of VC is valuation, the art is knowing when to ignore it. He shares that Accel missed investing in ServiceTitan, a $9B company, by rigidly adhering to valuation multiples for vertical SaaS, learning a costly lesson about the need for flexibility with generational founders.
An investor might correctly identify a company's flaw but still be wrong to pass, as great founders often fix those issues. This requires investors to have the humility to admit their ultimate conclusion was wrong, even if their initial analysis was correct, and be willing to re-engage with the startup.
A core part of a16z's growth fund strategy is to invest in companies the firm's early-stage team passed on. This acts as an internal "fix the mistake fund," providing a structured way to correct errors of omission and get a second chance at breakout companies.
A common mistake in venture capital is investing too early based on founder pedigree or gut feel, which is akin to 'shooting in the dark'. A more disciplined private equity approach waits for companies to establish repeatable, business-driven key performance metrics before committing capital, reducing portfolio variance.
In VC, where being wrong is the norm (80%+ of the time), the most critical trait is not righteousness but deep curiosity. This learning-first mindset is what uncovers non-obvious opportunities and allows investors to see future market shifts before they become mainstream, according to True Ventures' Jon Callaghan.
A primary function of Andreessen Horowitz's growth fund is to correct errors of omission from its early-stage team. Joking referred to as the "fix the mistake fund," it provides a second chance to invest in companies the firm initially passed on. This internal synergy is a core part of their multi-stage strategy.
Countering the 'swing for the fences' mentality, Accel co-founder Arthur Patterson's mantra is to 'focus on hitting singles and doubles and let the home runs take care of themselves.' This philosophy encourages investors to focus on fundamentals and strong founder relationships rather than trying to force a $100B outcome from day one, which often leads to failure.
The most critical decision in venture isn't the final investment vote but the mid-funnel choice of which companies get a deep look. The costliest errors are false negatives—great companies dismissed prematurely. Firms should therefore optimize process hygiene at this stage, implementing mandatory post-meeting debriefs to avoid these misses.
With efficient discovery from accelerators like YC, the main opportunity for smaller VCs is to invest when a promising company stumbles or its re-acceleration is non-obvious. These "glitches in the matrix," where progress is non-linear, are moments where mega-funds might look away, creating an opening.
The most successful founders rarely get the solution right on their first attempt. Their strength lies in persistence combined with adaptability. They treat their initial ideas as hypotheses, take in new data, and are willing to change their approach repeatedly to find what works.