Ben Horowitz categorizes VCs into two groups. 'Heat-seekers' are often agreeable, chase hot deals, perform well in booms, but fade away. In contrast, long-term 'truffle-hunters' are typically disagreeable, conviction-driven investors who must think for themselves to find non-obvious opportunities and build enduring careers.
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Limited Partners, much like VCs searching for outlier founders, are often looking for fund managers who are "a little off." They value investors who think differently and don't follow the consensus, as this non-traditional approach is seen as the path to generating outsized returns.
Venture capitalists thrive by adopting one of two distinct personas: the "in the flow" consensus-driver focused on speed and connections, or the "out of the flow" contrarian focused on deep, isolated work. Attempting to straddle both paths leads to failure.
The 'classic' VC model hunts for unproven talent in niche areas. The now-dominant 'super compounder' model argues the biggest market inefficiency is underestimating the best companies. This justifies investing in obvious winners at any price, believing that outlier returns will cover the high entry cost.
The most successful venture investors share two key traits: they originate investments from a first-principles or contrarian standpoint, and they possess the conviction to concentrate significant capital into their winning portfolio companies as they emerge.
A simple framework to evaluate a VC's skill is the four 'D's'. They need proprietary Deal Flow, the ability to make good Decisions (initial investment), the conviction to Double Down on winners, and the discipline to generate Distributions (returns) for LPs.
Sequoia's founder taught that the best investments are in individuals who are both exceptional and "not so easy to get along with." These founders challenge convention and refuse to accept the world as it is, a trait that makes them unconventional but also uniquely capable of building category-defining companies.
Resist the common trend of chasing popular deals. Instead, invest years in deeply understanding a specific, narrow sector. This specialized expertise allows you to make smarter investment decisions, add unique value to companies, and potentially secure better deal pricing when opportunities eventually arise.
Horowitz claims that winning competitive deals is a much larger component of VC success than simply picking the right companies. A firm with a brand and platform that can consistently win the best deals will automatically generate top-tier returns, even with average picking ability. This attracts the best pickers over time, creating a flywheel.
The institutionalization of venture capital as a career path changes investor incentives. At large funds, individuals may be motivated to join hyped deals with well-known founders to advance their careers, rather than taking on the personal risk of backing a contrarian idea with higher return potential.
Most VCs "gather" by networking broadly. QED advocates for "hunting": identifying a single, high-conviction company and relentlessly pursuing an investment. This shifts the mindset from passively waiting for inbound leads to proactively targeting the absolute best opportunities long before a formal fundraise begins.
