The most successful venture investors share two key traits: they originate investments from a first-principles or contrarian standpoint, and they possess the conviction to concentrate significant capital into their winning portfolio companies as they emerge.
Aspiring LPs are advised to focus on building their network and following established signals of quality. Attempting to *be* the signal-setting investor early in one's career is high-risk, as it requires decades of experience and pattern recognition that newcomers lack.
Contrary to common belief, the earliest AI startups often command higher relative valuations than established growth-stage AI companies, whose revenue multiples are becoming more rational and comparable to public market comps.
Similar to the dot-com era, the current AI investment cycle is expected to produce a high number of company failures alongside a few generational winners that create more value than ever before in venture capital history.
In today's market, 90% of VCs chase signals, while the top 10% (like Sequoia or Founders Fund) *are* the signal. Their investment creates a powerful self-reinforcing dynamic, attracting the best talent, customers, and follow-on capital to their portfolio companies.
The primary risk to a VC fund's performance isn't its absolute size but rather a dramatic increase (e.g., doubling) from one fund to the next. This forces firms to change their strategy and write larger checks than their conviction muscle is built for.
Underperforming VC firms persist because the 7-10+ year feedback loop for returns allows them to raise multiple funds before performance is clear. Additionally, most LPs struggle to distinguish between a manager's true investment skill and market-driven luck.