Fears of AI disintermediating platforms like Booking.com may be overblown. AI agents would need to replicate decades of user ratings, global payment infrastructure, and deep supplier relationships from scratch—a monumental task that makes it more likely incumbents will simply integrate AI themselves.
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According to Flexport's CEO, large incumbents hold significant AI advantages over startups. They possess vast proprietary data for model training, the domain expertise to target high-value problems (features, not companies), and instant distribution, allowing them to deploy AI solutions to thousands of customers overnight.
The effectiveness of AI assistants will depend on their deep understanding of a user's life. Incumbents like Apple and Google have a massive advantage because their ecosystems (email, photos, calendars) provide years of contextual data, which is harder for startups to replicate than advanced code.
As AI and better tools commoditize software creation, traditional technology moats are shrinking. The new defensible advantages are forms of liquidity: aggregated data, marketplace activity, or social interactions. These network effects are harder for competitors to replicate than code or features.
CEOs of platforms like ZocDoc and TaskRabbit are not worried about AI agent disruption. They believe the immense complexity of managing their real-world networks—like integrating with chaotic healthcare systems or vetting thousands of workers—is a defensible moat that pure software agents cannot easily replicate, giving them leverage over AI companies.
Unlike mobile or internet shifts that created openings for startups, AI is an "accelerating technology." Large companies can integrate it quickly, closing the competitive window for new entrants much faster than in previous platform shifts. The moat is no longer product execution but customer insight.
AI favors incumbents more than startups. While everyone builds on similar models, true network effects come from proprietary data and consumer distribution, both of which incumbents own. Startups are left with narrow problems, but high-quality incumbents are moving fast enough to capture these opportunities.
Creating a basic AI coding tool is easy. The defensible moat comes from building a vertically integrated platform with its own backend infrastructure like databases, user management, and integrations. This is extremely difficult for competitors to replicate, especially if they rely on third-party services like Superbase.
Oren Zeev argues against the narrative that AI will kill all incumbents. He believes businesses with operational complexity, deep data moats, and strong distribution are not easily disrupted. These companies are more likely to leverage AI to their advantage, while simpler software companies are at greater risk.
As AI's bottleneck shifts from compute to data, the key advantage becomes low-cost data collection. Industrial incumbents have a built-in moat by sourcing messy, multimodal data from existing operations—a feat startups cannot replicate without paying a steep marginal cost for each data point.
New technology like AI doesn't automatically displace incumbents. Established players like DoorDash and Google successfully defend their turf by leveraging deep-rooted network effects (e.g., restaurant relationships, user habits). They can adopt or build competing tech, while challengers struggle to replicate the established ecosystem.
