Oren Zeev argues against the narrative that AI will kill all incumbents. He believes businesses with operational complexity, deep data moats, and strong distribution are not easily disrupted. These companies are more likely to leverage AI to their advantage, while simpler software companies are at greater risk.
Oren Zeev observes that it's much harder for funds to raise capital today. Not only is there less money flowing into venture, but a larger portion is going to established platform funds. He predicts that at least 50% of current VC funds will be unable to raise their next fund and will slowly die.
Oren Zeev argues the market's obsession with triple-digit growth is dangerous, driving unhealthy behaviors like circular revenue deals. He prefers a company doubling annually with healthy economics over one tripling with unsustainable practices, as the fundamental math of compounding has not changed.
Oren Zeev argues that LPs should seek diversification across their portfolio of GPs, not within a single fund. He believes GPs should be concentrated in their best deals to maximize returns, noting that concentration limits at the fund level don't benefit LPs who are already diversified across many managers.
To ensure "radical alignment," solo capitalist Oren Zeev pays himself zero from management fees, reinvesting 100% back into his funds. As the largest LP in every fund and with a 30% carry, his entire economic incentive is tied to long-term value creation, not fee generation, which is highly unusual.
To maintain maximum flexibility, Oren Zeev explicitly tells his LPs his only rule is that he has "no rules." This prevents him from being boxed in by a rigid strategy, allowing him to make opportunistic investments that might otherwise contradict stated ownership targets or round structures, ultimately benefiting the fund.
Oren Zeev advises LPs to gauge the reality of a fund's paper returns by assessing the GP's motivation. A secure, top-tier fund has every reason to be conservative with marks. A less-established fund, needing to fundraise, is highly motivated to use any available methodology to keep valuations high on paper.
Oren Zeev defends his rapid fund deployment by reframing vintage diversification. He argues that for LPs who invest across his successive funds, diversification occurs at the portfolio level over many years. A single fund may be concentrated in one market cycle, but the long-term LP benefits from exposure to multiple vintages.
Citing Annie Duke, Oren Zeev highlights a critical cognitive bias for investors: the tendency to be "self-validation machines" rather than "truth seekers." Good decision-makers must possess the intellectual honesty to change their minds when presented with new data, rather than interpreting all new information as proof of their original thesis.