The Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates that the first move in modern warfare is often a cyberattack to disable critical systems like logistics and communication. This is a low-cost, high-impact method to immobilize an adversary before physical engagement.

The next escalation in the Russia-NATO conflict won't be conventional warfare but an expansion of the current "shadow war." This involves asymmetric tactics like cyberattacks, destroying undersea cables, using drones in allied airspace, and funding vandalism of critical infrastructure to divide and destabilize European allies from within.

A coming battle will focus on 'malinformation'—facts that are true but inconvenient to established power structures. Expect coordinated international efforts to pressure social media platforms into censoring this content at key chokepoints.

Former official Jon Finer posits that sustained American public support for aiding Ukraine stems from its clear, digestible narrative of a perpetrator (Russia) and a victim (Ukraine). This contrasts sharply with the Iraq War, where complex justifications and moral ambiguity made it harder for the public to engage.

Putin's history shows a reliable pattern: he appears cooperative and makes agreements, only to later act in his own self-interest. To predict his moves in conflicts like the Ukraine war, one must analyze this long-term behavioral pattern rather than his current statements or gestures.

Agencies like Mossad strategically allow or even promote media about their successful operations (e.g., films like "Munich"). This acts as information warfare, shaping a global perception of their omnipotence. This cultivated mystique serves as a powerful deterrent, even if their true capabilities are more limited.

Many of today's political and social conflicts stem from long-term KGB "psyops" designed to divide the West. These playbooks—which involve framing influential figures, backing separatist movements, and creating internal division—are still actively used by Russia and have been copied by other nations.

Soviet leaders who lived through WWII understood the unpredictability of direct conflict and preferred proxy wars. Vladimir Putin, in contrast, has consistently used direct "hot wars"—from Chechnya to Georgia to Ukraine—as a primary tool to consolidate power and boost his domestic popularity.

Executing complex military operations publicly reveals sensitive tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs). Adversaries like Russia and China study these events to deconstruct US capabilities, from mission sequencing to electronic warfare. This exposure of the 'revolver's shots' depletes the element of surprise for future, more critical conflicts.