While the U.S. accuses China of secret nuclear testing, China's actions may not breach international law. China signed, but never ratified, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. This crucial distinction means it isn't legally bound by the treaty's prohibitions, creating a gray area for arms control enforcement.
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While the US administration celebrated a deal, China's official media has remained silent, only mentioning a need to finalize follow-up steps. This discrepancy suggests Beijing views the agreement as a tentative pause, waiting to see US actions before fully committing.
The same governments pushing AI competition for a strategic edge may be forced into cooperation. As AI democratizes access to catastrophic weapons (CBRN), the national security risk will become so great that even rival superpowers will have a mutual incentive to create verifiable safety treaties.
The popular scenario of an AI taking control of nuclear arsenals is less plausible than imagined. Nuclear Command, Control, and Communication (NC3) systems are profoundly classified and intentionally analog, precisely to prevent the kind of digital takeover an AI would require.
China's nuclear strategy differs from the Cold War dynamic. While the US and Soviets were near parity, incentivizing de-escalation, China lags far behind with only 600 warheads to the US's 5,300. This massive gap provides a strong strategic incentive for China to rapidly build its arsenal to gain leverage, particularly regarding Taiwan.
With the New START treaty gone and doubts about America's commitment to "extended deterrence," especially under Donald Trump, allies in Europe and Asia are debating acquiring their own nuclear weapons. This could lead to a dangerous proliferation free-for-all, increasing the risk of preemptive strikes.
Nobel laureate John Martinis expresses concern that China is strategically withholding its quantum computing research. He notes that Chinese labs often publish results similar to Google's shortly after Google does, suggesting they may be waiting for Western validation before revealing their own, potentially parallel or superior, progress.
The belief that AI development is unstoppable ignores history. Global treaties successfully limited nuclear proliferation, phased out ozone-depleting CFCs, and banned blinding lasers. These precedents prove that coordinated international action can steer powerful technologies away from the worst outcomes.
The official narrative of China's top general leaking nuclear secrets is likely a cover for a deeper power struggle between President Xi and the military establishment. The ongoing purges are a sign of internal conflict for control, making an invasion of Taiwan less likely due to a destabilized command structure.
International AI treaties are feasible. Just as nuclear arms control monitors uranium and plutonium, AI governance can monitor the choke point for advanced AI: high-end compute chips from companies like NVIDIA. Tracking the global distribution of these chips could verify compliance with development limits.
Facing a potential US pullback and rising Chinese aggression, Japan's leadership is reportedly questioning its long-held "three non-nuclear principles." This signals a major strategic shift, potentially aiming to allow US nuclear vessels in its ports to establish a credible, independent deterrent against China.
