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Instead of pure defense, a proactive, alliance-based 'counter-coercion' strategy is needed. This involves sharing industrial intelligence to identify and hold an adversary's own economic choke points at risk, creating a credible threat of retaliation that deters them from using economic coercion in the first place.

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Naveen Krishnan proposes a dual mandate for economic security, similar to the Federal Reserve's. It balances a defensive goal (minimizing GDP exposure to adversary-controlled choke points) with an offensive one (ensuring the industrial base can surge production in a crisis).

The strategic competition with China is often viewed through a high-tech military lens, but its true power lies in dominating the low-tech supply chain. China can cripple other economies by simply withholding basic components like nuts, bolts, and screws, proving that industrial basics are a key geopolitical weapon.

In response to America's predatory and unpredictable policies, allies are not just complaining; they are actively diversifying their economic relationships to reduce their vulnerability. This is seen in new trade deals like EU-Mercosur and Canada-Indonesia, which consciously bypass the US to build resilience.

Adversaries now understand that Western financial markets are a key vulnerability. Iran is incentivized to attack energy infrastructure not just for physical disruption, but to directly target market sentiment and trigger financial instability, making economic warfare a primary strategy.

In economic warfare, controlling an intermediate good like a microcontroller is more powerful than controlling a finished product like a car. Because intermediate goods are inputs to many different supply chains, disrupting their flow causes far broader and more cascading damage to an adversary's economy, creating greater geopolitical leverage.

A US industrial renaissance is a 10+ year project at best. The only way to balance against China's massive productive capacity in the short-to-medium term is by forming an "anti-hegemonic coalition" and leveraging the existing industrial power of allies like Japan, Korea, and Europe.

Policymakers find it easier to implement offensive measures like sanctions because they appear decisive. In contrast, building domestic industrial resilience is a harder political sell, as it requires significant, long-term spending with no immediate, tangible benefit to voters until a crisis hits.

A militarily weaker nation can effectively counter a superpower by creating targeted fear and risk in a vital economic channel, like a shipping strait. By making insurance prohibitively expensive and transit dangerous, they can achieve strategic goals without needing to win a conventional military engagement.

China is no longer just mirroring US trade restrictions in a tit-for-tat manner. It is now offensively mapping its own supply chains to identify and control global choke points, proactively weaponizing its dominance in critical materials and technologies to exert geopolitical pressure.

Rather than trying to replicate entire supply chains, Europe's strategy is to secure "indispensability" in specific, high-value niches where it holds an advantage, such as gallium arsenide wafer production. This creates an interdependent "allied autonomy," giving Europe leverage with both China and the U.S.

Alliances Should Build 'Counter-Coercion Leverage' to Deter Economic Attacks | RiffOn