Securing mineral deposits is insufficient because China has controlled the export of key rare earth processing technologies since 2008. This creates a significant technological moat. The U.S. government has even had to formally request China share these technologies, highlighting a deep dependency beyond just raw materials.
The urgent need to replenish munitions for Ukraine and prepare for a Taiwan contingency is directly undermined by dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chinese export control laws can automatically deny sales to defense users, creating an acute short-term vulnerability for a Western defense industrial base holding limited stockpiles.
While important for EVs, lithium is "overrated" as a strategic priority because its enormous market size naturally absorbs a disproportionate share of broad-based government subsidies. This diverts limited capital away from smaller, more severe chokepoints in minerals like heavy rare earths, where China holds near-total control.
China's policy of creating global scarcity—rather than a full cutoff—is a sophisticated strategy to force allies to compete for resources. For example, when Japan secures its own rare earth supply but earmarks 75% for domestic use, it leaves European partners at a disadvantage, fracturing allied industrial cooperation.
A "plugging holes" approach focused solely on raw materials is strategically flawed. China is replicating its dominance in downstream sectors like battery cells and chemicals—the "connective tissue" of manufacturing. Without a holistic strategy, the West risks solving one dependency only to face another, more complex one.
Rather than trying to replicate entire supply chains, Europe's strategy is to secure "indispensability" in specific, high-value niches where it holds an advantage, such as gallium arsenide wafer production. This creates an interdependent "allied autonomy," giving Europe leverage with both China and the U.S.
Western economies have long outsourced the financial and environmental costs of mineral processing to China. Reshoring this production is not just a technical challenge but a societal one. It will inevitably lead to higher input costs for domestic industries and force a confrontation with "Not In My Backyard" (NIMBY) sentiment.
China maintains dominance not by restricting supply, but by demonstrating its ability to flood the market at will. This uncertainty makes new Western mining projects financially non-viable without significant government support like price floors or guaranteed offtake agreements, effectively killing competition before it starts.
Instead of broad subsidies across all critical minerals, a more effective strategy is to target the ~25 materials that China has explicitly used as leverage through export controls. This "power law" approach concentrates capital on acute vulnerabilities identified by China's own actions, rather than diluting it across a wide, less-critical list.