Despite being the weaker military party, Iran's ability to inflict persistent pain on regional shipping and U.S. allies gives it leverage. To secure a ceasefire, the U.S. may have to offer incentives like sanctions relief, allowing Iran to turn military weakness into diplomatic strength.

The recent exchange of strikes between the US and Iran is not just random escalation but a form of negotiation. Both sides are using limited military action to demonstrate their leverage and resolve, attempting to shape the terms of ongoing low-level discussions without engaging in all-out war.

The US views its blockade not as an escalation but as a way to "even the score" with Iran's existing blockade. This action is a deliberate strategy to create leverage for upcoming negotiations by demonstrating a willingness to physically enforce its position.

Iran's demonstrated ability to close the Strait of Hormuz has become its most potent strategic and economic leverage. This physical control over a critical global chokepoint is seen as a more immediate and effective deterrent than a potential nuclear weapon, giving Tehran a powerful tool to counter sanctions.

According to a UAE diplomat, Iran's massive missile attack was a calculated strategy. By targeting the Gulf's civilian infrastructure (95% of targets), Iran aimed to pressure global markets and, by extension, compel Washington and its allies to stop the war.

Iran successfully leveraged its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade chokepoint, to create immense economic pressure. This conventional deterrent shifted the burden onto the US to de-escalate, proving more immediately impactful than a theoretical nuclear capability.

The current state of conflict with Iran is a protracted "no war, no peace" situation. While better than all-out war, this stalemate is not a sustainable long-term solution for the region, Iran, or the US, and requires substantive discussions to achieve lasting peace.

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is its key bargaining chip, but its aggressive use has cost it the very economic benefits it sought. This demonstrates how a short-term tactical victory can lead to a long-term strategic loss by undermining the ultimate goal of the negotiation.

An attempt by Iran to monetize the Strait of Hormuz could create an unexpected diplomatic opportunity. The global shipping industry's preference to pay fees in U.S. dollars would clash with existing sanctions, potentially forcing negotiations between Iran and the U.S. to find a workable payment solution.