Iran's strategy involves striking non-combatant US allies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This imposes broad regional pain, demonstrating to the world that the economic and political costs of attacking Iran will be too high for anyone to bear, thus restoring long-term deterrence.

Unable to achieve a decisive military victory, the US and Iran are locked in a "game of uncle." The US aims to inflict maximum damage on Iran's infrastructure, while Iran targets the global economy to create international pressure on the US to cease hostilities.

Adversaries now understand that Western financial markets are a key vulnerability. Iran is incentivized to attack energy infrastructure not just for physical disruption, but to directly target market sentiment and trigger financial instability, making economic warfare a primary strategy.

The specific targeting choices in the initial Iran strikes—leadership, navy warships, and military infrastructure—suggest the primary goal is economic control, specifically securing the Strait of Hormuz. Had the true objective been nuclear deterrence, the focus would have been on destroying nuclear facilities, which was not the case.

Anwar Gargash reveals that during the conflict, only 5% of Iranian attacks targeted military installations, while 95% hit economic infrastructure. This suggests Iran used the presence of U.S. bases as a pretext to launch a broader economic attack aimed at creating international pressure.

Instead of only retaliating directly against a superior military power like the U.S., Iran escalates "horizontally." It uses drones and missiles to attack the economic interests (tourism, airports) of U.S. allies, pressuring them to expel American forces from their countries.

Iran's attacks on GCC nations are not random. They are a calculated strategy to force these states to divert capital from US AI investments towards domestic defense, thereby undermining the backbone of the US economy.

Escalating war with Iran carries a catastrophic risk beyond closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could target the desalination plants that provide water to millions in the Arabian Peninsula, rendering the region uninhabitable and destroying its economy.

Iran's attacks on Gulf states are a calculated strategy to distribute the conflict's costs. By disrupting commerce, tourism, and daily life across the region, Tehran hopes to generate enough pressure from Gulf leaders on the US to end the war with security guarantees for Iran.