To address complex new topics like AI, policymakers may opt for flexible side agreements instead of amending the USMCA text. This path introduces substantial enforcement risk as these agreements would lack formal congressional approval.

Despite tariffs making imports more expensive, moving furniture production back to the US is seen as unrealistic. The primary obstacle is not financial, but a critical shortage of trained workers who can and want to do the work, a deficit that tariffs cannot fix.

The U.S. industrial strategy isn't pure "reshoring" but "friend-shoring." The goal is to build a global supply chain that excludes China, not to bring all production home. This creates massive investment opportunities in allied countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Korea, and Japan, which are beneficiaries of this geopolitical realignment.

Because U.S. tariff levels are likely to remain stable regardless of legal challenges, the more critical factor for the long-term outlook is how companies adapt. Investors should focus on corporate responses in capital spending and supply chain adjustments rather than the tariff levels themselves.

The ongoing wave of investment in automation and upgrading existing US facilities is not the end goal. It's the first step for companies recalculating supply chain costs due to tariffs. This "brownfield" optimization proves the economic viability of US production, paving the way for larger "greenfield" projects once existing capacity is maximized.

Contrary to traditional economic cycles where high demand prompts capacity expansion, the current driver is tariff mitigation. Companies are investing in US production to avoid import costs, a motivation that doesn't require a strong consumer goods market. The existing $1.2T trade deficit provides the "demand" to be recaptured domestically.

Due to its deep integration with the US economy, Mexico has developed a massive industrial base. If Mexico were located elsewhere and had more diversified trade relationships, it would be globally recognized as a major industrial power, rivaling European giants like Germany and France.

The review is expected to maintain the core trade agreement and resolve disputes, but ambitious updates on AI, critical minerals, or China will be postponed or handled via less formal side agreements, thus limiting the full potential of near-shoring.

A flat tariff on imports makes complex manufacturing with numerous cross-border steps prohibitively expensive. It becomes cheaper to move domestic production steps out of the tariff zone and import the finished good only once, leading to the deindustrialization of high-skilled jobs.