The review is expected to maintain the core trade agreement and resolve disputes, but ambitious updates on AI, critical minerals, or China will be postponed or handled via less formal side agreements, thus limiting the full potential of near-shoring.
The expected outcome will maintain Mexico's critical tariff-free access to the U.S., supporting current manufacturing. However, it will fall short of providing the strategic updates needed to catalyze a full-scale acceleration of near-shoring.
To address complex new topics like AI, policymakers may opt for flexible side agreements instead of amending the USMCA text. This path introduces substantial enforcement risk as these agreements would lack formal congressional approval.